16 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1466
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sokolowski
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1459
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sokolowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H8-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.