16 Aug · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1373
FormLWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1420
FormWLLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H1-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)