16 Aug · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1435
FormLWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1516
FormWWLLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+81
H2H12-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-5)