16 Aug · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1457
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1521
FormLLWLW
43%
57%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H11-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-9)