16 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1375
FormLWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wojcik
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1451
FormWWLLW
42%
58%
🌟Adach stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Wojcik
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+76
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)