16 Aug · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1317
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1350
FormLLWWL
46%
54%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H49-53
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.