16 Aug · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WI
🇵🇱Wojciech Iwasyszyn
ELO 1354
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1420
FormWLLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H5-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-3)