16 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1539
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Witczak
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1521
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🌟Szostok covers set handicap as underdog 73% (30)
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H7-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.