16 Aug · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AW
🇵🇱Alan Wos
ELO 1533
FormWLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wos
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1456
FormWWWWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Wos
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 76% · 1.32· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+77
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)