16 Aug · 11:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1456
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1521
FormWLLLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 74% · 1.34· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+65
H2H11-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-5)