16 Aug · 11:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1418
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mugowski
WI
🇵🇱Wojciech Iwasyszyn
ELO 1350
FormLLWLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H6-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-3)