16 Aug · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1418
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Michalczyk
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1435
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🌟Mugowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.