16 Aug · 12:40 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1369
FormLWLLW
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1521
FormWLLLW
34%
66%
🌟Adach stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~77 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+152
H2H6-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+152)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-3)