16 Aug · 13:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇵🇱Jacek Przewlocki
ELO 1376
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sinicki
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1387
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sinicki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.