16 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1448
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wojcik
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1471
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Wojcik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.