16 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1368
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skorski
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1355
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.