16 Aug · 14:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WI
🇵🇱Wojciech Iwasyszyn
ELO 1359
FormWWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Michalczyk
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1422
FormLLWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)