16 Aug · 14:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1456
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dabrowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1419
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
🌟Mugowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H26-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.