16 Aug · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1391
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mucha
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1458
FormLWLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H7-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-3)