16 Aug · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1422
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Michalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1358
FormLLLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)