16 Aug · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1450
FormWLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1519
FormWWLWL
42%
58%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 78% · 1.29· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H12-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-9)