16 Aug · 16:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1428
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Mugowski
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1358
FormLLLWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H1-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)