16 Aug · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1444
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Idaczyk
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1362
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
🌟Adach stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)