16 Aug · 16:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1350
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Piotrowski
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1410
FormWWLWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)