16 Aug · 18:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1463
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lilien
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1461
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H7-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.