16 Aug · 19:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RO
🇵🇱Rafal Ogon
ELO 1223
FormLLLLL
77%Win chancemodel fair 1.30Paszkiewicz
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1498
FormWWWLW
23%
77%
🌟Paszkiewicz stays under total as favourite 83% (12)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 77% · 1.30vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 61%Total ~77 pts
0-3
33%
1-3
28%
2-3
16%
3-2
10%
3-1
8%
Elo Gap+275
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+275)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)