16 Aug · 19:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Kamil Kostyk
ELO 1496
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kostyk
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1475
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Kostyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.