16 Aug · 20:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1478
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Paszkiewicz
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1504
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Paszkiewicz stays under total as favourite 83% (12)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.