16 Aug · 21:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1507
FormWWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Paszkiewicz
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1466
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🌟Paszkiewicz stays under total as favourite 83% (12)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)