16 Aug · 22:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1477
FormWLWWW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Lilien
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1320
FormWLLLL
67%
33%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 76% · 1.32· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~75 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+157
H2H16-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+157)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-5)