16 Aug · 22:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RO
🇵🇱Rafal Ogon
ELO 1226
FormLLWLL
75%Win chancemodel fair 1.33Adamus
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1471
FormWLLLL
25%
75%
🌟Adamus goes over total as favourite 63% (87)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 75% · 1.33vsMarket 76% · 1.31· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 59%Total ~77 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
9%
Elo Gap+245
H2H15-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+245)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-2)