16 Aug · 23:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1320
FormWLLLL
69%Win chancemodel fair 1.45Kostyk
KK
🇵🇱Kamil Kostyk
ELO 1502
FormWWWLL
31%
69%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Kostyk
Model 69% · 1.45vsMarket 73% · 1.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 52%Total ~74 pts
1-3
27%
0-3
25%
2-3
17%
3-1
12%
3-2
11%
Elo Gap+182
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+182)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)