16 Aug · 22:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1538
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Gumulinski
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1483
FormLWWLL
56%
44%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H73-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (73-31)