16 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1502
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Paszkiewicz
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1515
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Paszkiewicz stays under total as favourite 83% (12)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.