16 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1461
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1477
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.