16 Aug · 23:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1488
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Urban
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1478
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H55-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.