17 Aug · 00:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1545
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Oracz
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1530
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H14-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.