17 Aug · 00:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1310
FormLLWLL
68%Win chancemodel fair 1.47Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1483
FormWWLWW
32%
68%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 68% · 1.47vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~75 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
25%
2-3
17%
3-1
12%
3-2
11%
Elo Gap+173
H2H17-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+173)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-5)