17 Aug · 00:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1509
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jesiek
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1473
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Jesiek goes over total as favourite 79% (14)
Fair odds · Jesiek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.