17 Aug · 01:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RO
🇵🇱Rafal Ogon
ELO 1224
FormWLLLW
78%Win chancemodel fair 1.28Paszkiewicz
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1514
FormWLWWW
22%
78%
🌟Paszkiewicz stays under total as favourite 83% (12)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 78% · 1.28vsMarket 80% · 1.24· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 62%Total ~77 pts
0-3
34%
1-3
28%
2-3
16%
3-2
9%
3-1
8%
Elo Gap+290
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+290)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)