17 Aug · 01:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1550
FormWWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Oracz
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1480
FormLWLWW
58%
42%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H14-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-6)