17 Aug · 02:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1531
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1559
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H15-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.