17 Aug · 02:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1475
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1482
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.