17 Aug · 03:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1445
FormLLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jesiek
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1499
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
🌟Jesiek goes over total as favourite 79% (14)
Fair odds · Jesiek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H10-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-5)