17 Aug · 03:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1494
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Paszkiewicz
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1492
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🌟Paszkiewicz stays under total as favourite 83% (12)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 74% · 1.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.