17 Aug · 05:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1553
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sobel
PB
🇵🇱Przemyslaw Blocho
ELO 1544
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H16-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.