17 Aug · 05:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1497
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Urban
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1468
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H56-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.