17 Aug · 06:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1433
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Dabrowski
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1371
FormWLWLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)