17 Aug · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1518
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gumulinski
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1497
FormLWWWL
52%
48%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H74-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.