17 Aug · 07:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1544
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Brud
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1553
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Brud goes over total as favourite 72% (18)
Fair odds · Brud
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.